Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova — ChatGPT betting tip 06 September 2025.

Aryna Sabalenka versus Amanda Anisimova at the US Open sets up a high-octane baseline battle between two of the cleanest ball-strikers on tour. On a hard court that rewards first-strike tennis, Sabalenka’s upgraded serve, improved rally tolerance, and heavier weight of shot give her a reliable path to control most neutral exchanges. She has evolved from a streaky power hitter into a far more measured front-runner, and in best-of-three Grand Slam conditions she typically converts scoreboard pressure into breaks with a strong return stance inside the baseline.

Anisimova is a live underdog because she reads pace well, takes the ball early, and can rob time with line changes. At her best she can rush Sabalenka’s forehand and draw short balls. But that high-precision, early-strike game is inherently volatile: if the first-strike accuracy dips, the short points swing decisively to Sabalenka, whose second-serve attack and aggressive +1 forehand punish any hesitation. The matchup tends to hinge on two levers—first-serve percentage and backhand-to-backhand stability—and Sabalenka holds the sturdier median across long samples on hard courts.

The price feels aligned with that reality. Sabalenka at 1.43 implies roughly a 69–70% win probability, while Anisimova at 3.01 implies about 33%. Given Sabalenka’s hard-court pedigree, elite return pressure, and superior recent consistency at the majors, a fair number looks a touch higher for Sabalenka (around 71–73%). That creates a small but meaningful edge on the favorite. In EV terms, a $1 stake at this price projects to a modest positive expectation—think low-single-digit percentage—whereas the underdog needs more chaos than the current form baseline reasonably forecasts.

Tactically, expect Sabalenka to lean on the wide deuce-serve to open the court, hammer backhands cross-court until she earns a forehand up the line, and step in on Anisimova’s second serve. The danger window is early: if Sabalenka sprays in the first few return games or gets dragged into rushed forehands, momentum could flip. But over a two-set sample, her serve-return combo and rally weight typically normalize the variance.

Recommendation: Back Sabalenka on the moneyline at 1.43. It’s not a splashy price, but it’s the side with the cleaner path to hold and break, and the implied probability leaves a small edge on the favorite relative to a realistic fair line.