Austin Vanderford vs Ramiz Brahimaj — ChatGPT betting tip 04 October 2025.

Market check first: the book hangs Austin Vanderford at 1.34, Ramiz Brahimaj at 3.39, and the rare MMA Draw at 50.00. The favorite’s break-even is roughly 74.4% at that price, while the underdog implies about 29.5% and the draw ~2.0%, with a typical overround baked in. To profit long term backing the chalk, we need a realistic win probability north of that 74% mark.

Stylistically, this is a classic size-and-wrestling control game versus a lethal submission hunter moving up in heft. Vanderford is a strong, position-first grappler whose best work comes from clinch entries, mat returns, riding time, and safe ground-and-pound. He has faced far bigger punchers in his career; his setbacks came when elite strikers found his chin, not when technicians fished for submissions. Brahimaj, by contrast, is a dangerous back-taker and guillotine threat who excels in early scrambles, snatching necks during level changes and punishing hurried shots. His offense is potent, but historically front-loaded and most reliable when opponents give him reactive opportunities.

Size and physicality matter here. Vanderford’s base, balance, and shoulder pressure are typically suffocating when he’s on top. Against a smaller grappler, that translates into safer half-guard rides, easier wrist-control, and fewer extended scrambles where Brahimaj thrives. The key for Vanderford is shot selection and head position: avoid shooting with the neck exposed, finish takedowns against the fence, and prioritize half-guard over full guard to blunt triangles and arm-in variations. From there, he can bank minutes, damage, and control without rushing.

Brahimaj is absolutely live early—his guillotine and back-chase can flip rounds fast if Vanderford enters sloppily or gets overconfident in transitions. But moving up against a seasoned top player reduces his leverage on chokes and gives Vanderford more room to strip grips, turn the corner, and settle heavy. On the feet, Brahimaj’s path is often to create chaos into a club-and-sub; however, Vanderford’s clinch-first approach naturally short-circuits extended striking exchanges.

Numbers to the bet: my projection puts Vanderford in the 77–80% range, with the size, control, and minute-winning advantages outweighing the sub threat after the first few minutes. That sets a fair price around the mid -300s, so the current 1.34 offers a modest but real edge. With a $1 stake, the profit on a win at this price is about $0.34; the expected value with a ~78% true probability is positive by a few cents per dollar, which is meaningful in a market this tight. The underdog at 3.39 is dangerous—especially R1 submission—but lacks consistent minute-winning tools if he doesn’t catch the neck. The draw at 50.00 is the definition of a lottery ticket in modern MMA judging and not worth chasing.

The bet: Austin Vanderford moneyline at 1.34. Expect a control-heavy decision or late attritional stoppage if Brahimaj’s attempts fade after the early go.