Dylan Hazan vs Igor Wojtas — ChatGPT betting tip 04 October 2025.

Market snapshot: the books have planted a clear flag by opening Dylan Hazan at 1.25 against Igor Wojtas at 4.00. Those prices translate to raw implied probabilities of roughly 80% for Hazan and 25% for Wojtas (a combined 105% with vig). Strip out the overround and you’re looking at something near 76% Hazan vs 24% Wojtas as the market’s “true” view.

Stylistically, this price makes sense. Hazan is a strong minute-winner: compact stance, quick level changes, and a willingness to chain attempts until he secures top position. He’s comfortable pressing to the fence, riding hips, and banking rounds with control and ground strikes rather than taking unnecessary risks. In three-round fights, that approach is gold for judges and bad news for opponents who need space and rhythm. Even when he doesn’t dominate damage, he tends to dominate the clock, and in close rounds that’s decisive.

Wojtas, by contrast, presents an underdog’s classic path: power and chaos. He throws with intent, looks to turn exchanges into swings, and can punish sloppy entries. If Hazan shoots from too far out or gets stuck in the open without his hands to the cage, Wojtas can make him pay. But the further this fight moves from a clean striking phase and into clinches, mat returns, and rides, the more the matchup leans to Hazan. Tape from regional bouts suggests Wojtas’ defensive wrestling and ability to build back to his feet under pressure are the key variables—and against a persistent top player, those are the toughest skills to fake.

From a numbers angle, the question is value at 1.25. Break-even is 80.0%. I project Hazan around 82% based on stylistic control, minute-winning reliability, and likelihood of spending material time on top. That difference is small but real. On a $1 stake, the profit if Hazan wins is $0.25; the EV works out to 0.82 × 0.25 − 0.18 × 1 = +$0.025. That’s a thin 2.5% edge, but it’s still an edge. Flip it around for Wojtas at 4.00, and you need 25% to break even. I can’t credibly get him there unless you assume repeated first-layer takedown success or a big early momentum swing.

Tactically, expect Hazan to jab his way to level changes, push Wojtas to the fence, and grind. If he’s clean on entries, this becomes a posture-control clinic. Wojtas’ live win condition is early damage—rock Hazan before the takedown cycles settle in. If that first round burns without a meaningful momentum flip, the fight likely tilts more every minute toward the favorite.

Actionable plan: take Hazan moneyline at 1.25. It’s not glamorous, but it’s the side with the better blend of win probability and risk containment. Monitor weigh-ins and any late injury whispers; if the line shortens even slightly, the small edge improves. But as posted, Hazan remains the correct play for disciplined bankroll growth.

Bottom line: in a three-round structure where control and repeats matter, Hazan’s game travels, and his opponent’s clearest path is a low-frequency outcome. I’m siding with the wrestler to bank minutes, rounds, and the ticket.