Karol Ryšavý vs Ayton De Paepe — ChatGPT betting tip 04 October 2025.

This matchup looks like a classic striker-versus-pressure grappler dynamic, and the odds reflect that read. With Karol Ryšavý priced at 2.06 and Ayton De Paepe at 1.68, the market is leaning toward De Paepe’s ability to dictate terms with clinch entries, takedowns, and top control. The break-even threshold on 1.68 is roughly 59.5% win probability, so the key question is whether De Paepe clears that mark often enough to justify a play.

From a stylistic standpoint, Ryšavý is at his best when he’s allowed to operate at range: long straight shots, active kicks, and a clean one-two that can rack up points. He can punish lazy entries and turn defensive moments into sharp counters. The concern comes when opponents collapse the pocket and force him to defend against the fence; his takedown defense can look read-and-react rather than proactive, which yields prolonged clinch sequences and mat returns. Those phases tend to stall his volume and let opponents bank control time.

De Paepe, by contrast, typically looks comfortable exchanging just enough on the feet to set up level changes and body locks. He’s methodical rather than reckless—head position, underhooks, and incremental advances to half guard and mount. On top, he favors pressure over wild advances, which minimizes scrambles and protects his gas tank. That approach tends to impress judges in three-rounders because it “wins minutes,” even without huge damage spikes. If this fight follows that script, De Paepe’s consistency in wrestling sequences should tilt scorecards.

Intangibles also nudge this toward the favorite. In competitive regional matchups, minute-winning skill sets reliably cash tickets because they’re resilient to variance: even if a round starts poorly, one clean entry can flip the tenor of the frame. Ryšavý’s path hinges more on creating striking separation and landing the cleaner, more damaging moments—achievable, but it demands near-perfect balance and footwork for 15 minutes or a decisive momentum swing.

Translating that into a bet: at 1.68, your $1 stake stands to profit about $0.68 on a win. If we project De Paepe around 63–65% to take this (based on wrestling and control advantages), the expected value is positive: at 64%, EV ≈ 0.64 × 0.68 − 0.36 × 1 = +$0.075 per dollar. Ryšavý at 2.06 needs roughly 48.5% to break even; unless you rate him closer to a true coin flip, that side looks slightly negative EV.

The most likely fight texture is De Paepe chaining takedowns, logging top time, and smothering enough of Ryšavý’s rhythm to take two of three rounds. Ryšavý remains live early—particularly for momentum-swinging counters—but the steadier, round-winning lanes sit with De Paepe. For a $1 play on the moneyline, the modest but real edge sits with the favorite at 1.68.

Pick: Ayton De Paepe to win.