Max Lally vs Ben Ellis — ChatGPT betting tip 27 September 2025.

This is one of those lines where the market is screaming a side, but the price tells a different story. Max Lally is posted as a massive favorite at 1.13, implying roughly an 88–89% win probability once you account for vig, while Ben Ellis sits at a sizable underdog tag of 5.75, which implies just about 17–18%. In MMA, where small edges in scrambles and timing can flip a fight, numbers this wide demand a value check rather than a blind tail of the chalk.

Stylistically, Lally is a strong positional grappler with chain-wrestling entries, competent back takes, and solid round-winning control. He’s composed, handles range decently, and tends to bank minutes on top. The holes are mostly the normal ones for a developing prospect: entries can be linear, he can accept clinch stalls if the first finish isn’t there, and when opponents pummel for underhooks and force resets, his striking in open space can look more functional than dangerous.

Ellis, conversely, is a durable, well-drilled pro from a strong room, with reliable defensive wrestling mechanics—hips back, early frames, and active knee-line fights in the scrambles. On the feet, he works a jab–low-kick cadence and counter right hand that punishes level changes and squared stances. He’s not a volume buzzsaw, but he’s patient, keeps shape late, and tends to fight the man rather than the moment—useful when you’re tasked with making a big favorite look human.

The dynamic here is clear: Lally wants early takedowns into ride time and mat returns; Ellis wants to stuff first attempts, make Lally reset at distance, and tax entries with counters and calf kicks. If Ellis can force upper-body clinch pummeling instead of clean shots—think whizzers, inside trips to disengage, and quick stands—he meaningfully raises his win equity. Add in the perennial guillotine and front-headlock threats that appear when wrestlers chain too aggressively, and the underdog’s path isn’t narrow.

From a betting perspective, the question isn’t who’s more likely to win—Lally is—but whether the price matches reality. The break-even on 5.75 is about 17.4%. Given the matchup and the volatility profile, I estimate Ellis in the 22–26% range. That gap creates positive expected value: on a $1 stake, you’re risking little to capture a meaningful payoff if Ellis either keeps this standing or forces messy scrambles where one big moment decides a round—or the fight.

Actionable plan: pass the moneyline chalk at 1.13—there’s minimal upside and lots of downside in MMA variance. Take the dog shot on Ben Ellis at 5.75. If you must have favorite exposure, look for method props that reduce the price (e.g., Lally by decision or sub), but for a single $1 bet aimed at profitability, the value side is Ellis. You’ll lose more often than you win, but the times you cash should more than justify the risk long-term.