Mike Perry vs Jeremy Stephens — ChatGPT betting tip 04 October 2025.

This matchup pits two familiar names in a pure fistfight mentality against a complete MMA problem. The market has rushed to crown Mike Perry after his bare-knuckle surge, hanging a wide moneyline at 1.25, while Jeremy Stephens sits as the underdog at 3.50. That price gap reflects recent narrative more than the totality of skills relevant under MMA rules, and that’s exactly where the betting edge can appear.

Perry’s strengths are obvious: pressure, grit, and short-range punching power. He does his best work when he can set his feet, walk opponents down, and trade in the pocket. He’s also durable and thrives in ugly clinch-boxing sequences against the fence. But Perry’s MMA toolkit has ceilings: limited kicking offense, minimal threat as a layered grappler, and historically average defensive awareness when drawn into a range battle. When opponents stay disciplined at distance—chopping with low kicks, exiting on angles, and forcing resets—Perry can get stuck following rather than cutting off.

Stephens, even in the later stages of his career, brings well-rounded MMA seasoning: heavy calf kicks, a sharper jab-cross when he stays balanced, and veteran timing on the counter. He’s faced a higher level of variety—wrestlers, kickers, and switch hitters—and he understands how to keep a slugger honest with stance-switch leg attacks and feints. Crucially, he has more ways to score in MMA than in a bare-knuckle pocket brawl: he can kick, clinch-break, level change to keep Perry guessing, and bank minutes with activity.

The market is pricing Perry’s boxing-centric form as if it translates cleanly to MMA. It doesn’t always. Add kicks, takedown threats, and fence grappling, and the favorite’s edge compresses. If Stephens avoids the early phone-booth exchanges, punishes the lead leg, and forces Perry to chase, the momentum can swing—especially if he sprinkles in takedown attempts to disrupt Perry’s stance and power base. That path won’t be easy, but it’s live.

From a numbers perspective, 1.25 implies roughly an 80% break-even, while 3.50 implies about 28.6%. Given the rule set and stylistic layers, I project Stephens closer to the low-to-mid 30% range to win outright—enough to create positive expected value on the underdog ticket. The risk is obvious: if Stephens stands still and trades, Perry’s heavier shots can end it. But at this price, the variance works for the dog.

The bet: Take Jeremy Stephens moneyline at 3.50. It’s a value-driven position on a fighter with more scoring options in MMA and a clear blueprint to frustrate the favorite’s preferred fight. If leg kicks and movement show up early, this can quickly look like the right side.