Molly McCann vs Kate Radomska — ChatGPT betting tip 13 September 2025.

This matchup is priced like a showcase: Molly McCann at 1.07 versus Kate Radomska at 11.00, with the draw at 19.00. Those numbers scream market certainty on the favorite, but they also introduce what bettors call a “favorite tax” on a popular A-side. At these lines, the math matters more than the narratives. A bet on McCann at 1.07 yields roughly 7 cents profit per dollar if she wins, and you need her true win probability to exceed about 93.5% just to break even. That’s a very high bar in a boxing ring, even in a perceived mismatch.

The underdog at 11.00 only needs to win more than 9.1% of the time to be profitable in the long run. The core question is whether Radomska’s true chance clears that threshold. From a stylistic standpoint, this being a boxing bout injects uncertainty for McCann, whose brand and highlight moments were built in a different code. Transferring MMA striking to a boxing environment is non-trivial: glove size, defensive mechanics, punch selection, pacing over pure boxing rounds, and the diminished utility of kicks, elbows, and clinch variations all change the equation. Fighters with name recognition often close as outsized favorites when crossing codes, even against opponents with modest records but deeper boxing-specific reps.

Radomska’s path to an upset is defined and plausible: survive early pressure, turn the fight into a technical rhythm contest, exploit any defensive gaps in McCann’s pure boxing guard and footwork, and capitalize on counters as the bout settles. Durability and ring craft can carry an underdog deep, and in women’s boxing—where knockouts are less frequent than in men’s—scorecards become a bigger variable. While the A-side often gets the benefit of close rounds, underdogs do win decisions when they bank clean scoring shots and dictate tempo. Even a modest 11–13% true win probability for Radomska would make 11.00 positive expected value; at 12%, the $1 EV is roughly +$0.32, dwarfing the razor-thin margin you get for laying 1.07 with the favorite.

What about the draw at 19.00? The break-even is about 5.3%, and actual draw rates in this context tend to be lower, especially with an A-side present and likely round-winning aggression from McCann. Without a compelling stylistic clash that reliably produces 50/50 rounds, that number looks like a trap.

None of this denies McCann’s status as the most likely winner; it simply acknowledges that “most likely” does not equal “best bet” at these prices. When your mission is to maximize profit per dollar, you need the edge where the math lives, not where the marquee glows. Given the uncertainty in McCann’s pure boxing sample and the long-odds leverage on Radomska, the underdog moneyline offers the superior risk-reward profile.

Recommendation: Take Kate Radomska at 11.00. It’s a classic value stab: small stake, big payoff, and a realistic enough pathway to exceed the 9.1% break-even threshold. If she keeps it tidy, drags the fight into the later rounds, and scores with clean counters, the ticket has life—at a price that actually pays you for that risk.