Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty — ChatGPT betting tip 06 September 2025.

Seattle is priced as a slight home favorite at 1.77, with New York offered at 2.10. That number reflects a real home-court bump for the Storm, but it also creates an opportunity: the Liberty, with their elite core and two-way ceiling, are rarely available at plus money in near coin-flip matchups. The question isn’t whether Seattle is good (they are), it’s whether they should be favored over a Liberty team whose top-end talent and lineup balance travel well and historically hold up in high-leverage games.

Matchup-wise, New York’s frontcourt length and rebounding (Stewart and Jonquel Jones) is a persistent problem for Seattle. The Storm rely on rim protection and help rotations from Ezi Magbegor to wall off the paint; however, when Stewart drags primary bigs into space, driving lanes open and New York’s half-court becomes far more efficient. On the glass, JJ’s box-outs and Stewart’s timing tend to neutralize second-chance looks—an area Seattle often leans on at home to extend possessions.

Perimeter dynamics also tilt toward New York. Sabrina Ionescu’s off-ball gravity in two-guard actions with Courtney Vandersloot puts stress on point-of-attack defenders: go over, and she punishes with deep range; go under, and New York flows into quick re-screens or short-rolls to JJ/Stewie. Seattle’s best counter is to switch more, but that risks mismatches on the interior and additional fouls on their bigs—exactly what the Liberty want. Offensively, the Storm can score in bunches via Jewell Loyd and downhill creation, but New York’s disciplined help-and-recover scheme is built to live with contested mid-range while protecting the arc and the rim.

From a numbers perspective, 1.77 implies roughly 56.5% for Seattle, while 2.10 implies about 47.6% for New York. Stripping out the juice puts this closer to a 54/46 market split. My handicap makes the Liberty around 51.5–53% on a neutral-adjusted basis even on the road, thanks to their rebounding edge, lower turnover profile, and late-game shot quality. That turns the New York price into a positive expected value: EV per $1 at +110 is approximately +$0.05 to +$0.10 if you believe their true win probability is 51–53%.

Could Seattle win this at home? Absolutely—Loyd can nuke a game, and the Storm’s crowd generates run-fuel. But plus money on a top-tier, veteran Liberty lineup that matches up well in the half court is exactly the kind of edge we want to press. I’m taking the New York Liberty moneyline at 2.10, trusting their size-and-spacing combo to control the glass, generate cleaner threes, and grind out the clutch possessions late.

Recommendation: New York Liberty ML at 2.10 for the value.