Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui — ChatGPT betting tip 26 September 2025.

This moneyline is drawn with a thick marker: Vincent del Guerra at 1.31 versus Sofiane Aïssaoui at 3.50. In probability terms, that prices del Guerra around 76–77% to win, while Aïssaoui sits near 28–29%. When a market is this decisive in MMA, it usually signals a recognizable gap in consistency, round-winning tools, or defensive reliability. You don’t have to love laying chalk to recognize what the number is implying: the favorite is expected to control more minutes more often.

From a betting perspective, backing a favorite at this price only makes sense if you believe he clears that break-even threshold with room to spare. The typical ways a -300s favorite justifies the tag in MMA are repeatable, low-variance paths: pressure behind fundamentals, takedown entries to top control, clinch pinning, cage-cutting, and smart pace management. Those patterns bank minutes, discourage chaotic exchanges, and mute the underdog’s win conditions. If del Guerra brings a measured, process-first approach, he minimizes the coin-flip sequences that underdogs need to swing outcomes.

The case for Aïssaoui at 3.50 is the classic volatility pitch: catch a counter early, explode in transitions, or scramble to a high-leverage position. That’s the right script to chase when you see clear power or a unique finishing threat. But in the absence of a strong, specific stylistic read pointing to reliable upset equity, you’re mostly hoping for disorder against a fighter the market expects to manage risk. That can hit, but it’s thin if you don’t believe his true win rate cracks the ~29% needed for value.

Think in expected value terms. At 1.31, you need del Guerra to win well north of three out of four over the long run. If you view this as a controlled, grindable fight with clear minute-winning edges leaning his way, that’s an acceptable ask. If you saw glaring defensive lapses or cardio cliffs, you would pivot to the dog. Without those signals, defaulting to the stable side is the higher-percentage choice.

For a single $1 stake, the payout on the favorite is modest, but it compounds if you keep landing high-probability positions. The underdog’s return is juicy, yet demands a conviction that his finishing or momentum-swing chances are materially understated by the line. I don’t see enough to fade the market here. The sharper, more repeatable path appears to sit with del Guerra, who should be able to dictate where and how this is fought and avoid the one big sequence that Aïssaoui needs.

Recommendation: moneyline on Vincent del Guerra at 1.31. If weigh-ins or late news dramatically shift the dynamics, reassess, but at current prices the favorite is the smarter side to stake.