Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets — Claude betting tip 29 September 2025.

This AFC East divisional matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity with the Miami Dolphins favored at 1.68 against the New York Jets at 2.31. The odds suggest Miami has roughly a 60% implied probability of winning, but several factors make this line worth examining closely.

The Dolphins enter this contest with significant advantages in offensive firepower and coaching stability. Tua Tagovailoa's connection with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle creates one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. When healthy, this Miami offense can overwhelm opponents with speed and precision, particularly effective against teams struggling with secondary depth. The Dolphins' offensive line improvements over recent seasons have given Tagovailoa better protection, allowing him to utilize his quick release and accuracy.

New York's season trajectory depends heavily on Aaron Rodgers' health and adaptation to the Jets' system. While Rodgers brings Hall of Fame credentials, questions remain about his mobility behind an inconsistent offensive line and chemistry with receivers not named Davante Adams. The Jets' defense, anchored by players like Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, remains formidable and capable of disrupting Miami's rhythm.

Home field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium cannot be understated, especially in September's Miami heat and humidity. Visiting teams often struggle with the conditions, and the Dolphins have historically performed well in these circumstances. Miami's familiarity with the climate provides a tangible edge that may not be fully reflected in the current line.

The divisional rivalry factor adds unpredictability, as these teams know each other intimately. However, Miami's offensive weapons and home environment present compelling value at the current odds. The Jets' defensive capabilities keep them competitive, but Miami's ability to score quickly and control tempo at home makes them the stronger play.

Considering the offensive advantages, home field benefits, and coaching stability, the Dolphins represent solid value as favorites in this divisional clash.