Sergiusz Zajac vs Mariusz Książkiewicz — Claude betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between two Polish fighters with contrasting styles and career trajectories. Sergiusz Zajac enters as the heavy favorite at 1.41, indicating the betting market views him as having roughly a 71% chance of victory. This pricing suggests significant advantages in his favor that warrant careful examination.

Zajac's status as the favorite likely stems from his superior technical striking and more refined ground game. Polish MMA has produced several world-class fighters in recent years, and Zajac appears to fit the mold of a well-rounded competitor who can adapt to different phases of combat. His negative odds indicate he's been more consistent in recent performances and possibly holds advantages in key metrics like takedown defense, striking accuracy, or finishing ability.

Mariusz Książkiewicz at 2.70 represents solid underdog value if he possesses the tools to exploit potential weaknesses in Zajac's game. These odds translate to roughly 37% implied probability, suggesting the market may be undervaluing certain aspects of his skillset. Underdogs in MMA often succeed through superior cardio, unorthodox striking angles, or explosive grappling exchanges that catch favorites off-guard.

The September timeline gives both fighters ample preparation time, which typically favors the more technically sound competitor. Zajac's heavy favorite status combined with reasonable odds suggests he's demonstrated clear superiority in sparring, previous competition, or physical attributes like reach and athleticism.

While upset potential exists in any MMA contest, the significant odds differential points to Zajac having multiple paths to victory. His ability to dictate pace and implement game plans likely gives him edges in both striking exchanges and grappling scenarios. The market pricing appears justified based on skill differential.