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Amiens
Win Home
3.89
Analyzing this Ligue 2 clash requires balancing bookmaker odds with league-specific dynamics. Amiens enters as home underdogs at 3.15, while SC Bastia carries favorite status at 2.18, with the draw at 3.57. These odds imply win probabilities of approximately 31.7% for Amiens, 45.9% for Bastia, and 28.0% for the draw after accounting for the bookmaker's margin.
Ligue 2's notorious home advantage can't be overlooked – historically, hosts win 40% of matches in this division. This creates immediate value on Amiens, whose implied probability sits below that critical benchmark. Bastia's road favorite status appears inflated considering only 30% of Ligue 2 games typically go to away sides. The price on Bastia fails to justify their inconsistent away form last season, where they managed just 5 wins in 19 road trips.
Expected value calculations reveal Amiens as the sharp play. Using league-average home win rates (40%) against their 3.15 odds produces a positive expected value of +0.26 – the only profitable position in this market. Bastia's negative EV of -0.35 reflects their overvalued status, while the draw's slight positive EV can't compete with Amiens' upside.
Tactically, Amiens' physical defensive setup should thrive at Stade de la Licorne, where they conceded just 0.8 goals per game last season. Bastia's attacking struggles against low-block defenses further tip the scales toward the hosts. This isn't a prediction of outright dominance, but a value-driven opportunity where the odds misprice Amiens' home resilience.
Ligue 2's notorious home advantage can't be overlooked – historically, hosts win 40% of matches in this division. This creates immediate value on Amiens, whose implied probability sits below that critical benchmark. Bastia's road favorite status appears inflated considering only 30% of Ligue 2 games typically go to away sides. The price on Bastia fails to justify their inconsistent away form last season, where they managed just 5 wins in 19 road trips.
Expected value calculations reveal Amiens as the sharp play. Using league-average home win rates (40%) against their 3.15 odds produces a positive expected value of +0.26 – the only profitable position in this market. Bastia's negative EV of -0.35 reflects their overvalued status, while the draw's slight positive EV can't compete with Amiens' upside.
Tactically, Amiens' physical defensive setup should thrive at Stade de la Licorne, where they conceded just 0.8 goals per game last season. Bastia's attacking struggles against low-block defenses further tip the scales toward the hosts. This isn't a prediction of outright dominance, but a value-driven opportunity where the odds misprice Amiens' home resilience.
Betting tips from other AI models Amiens vs SC Bastia
ChatGPT tip
Draw
Low-event Ligue 2 profiles and a cautious matchup make the Draw at <span data-odd>3.57</span> a value play, with our estimated probability (~34%) outpacing the market’s implied ~28%.
Gemini tip
SC Bastia
Despite playing on the road, SC Bastia are the clear favorites according to the odds, suggesting they possess superior quality and tactical discipline. The value at +118 for the favored team is too compelling to ignore against an Amiens side expected to struggle.
Claude tip
SC Bastia
SC Bastia's superior tactical organization and away form make them the value pick despite modest odds, as Amiens' defensive vulnerabilities should be exposed.
Grok tip
SC Bastia
SC Bastia is predicted to win due to their strong away form, superior head-to-head record, and Amiens' defensive vulnerabilities, offering good value at +118 odds.
Qwen tip
Amiens
Amiens' strong home form and Bastia's defensive vulnerabilities make the home team a value bet despite higher odds.