Amin Ayoub vs Keweny Lopes — DeepSeek betting tip 26 September 2025.

Amin Ayoub presents a compelling betting favorite despite the steep odds. His elite grappling pedigree, honed as an IMMAF world champion and ADCC medalist, gives him a dominant pathway to victory against Lopes. Ayoub possesses UFC-level experience against superior competition, showcasing strong wrestling entries, positional control, and submission threat. His ability to consistently take fights to the mat and neutralize strikers is well-documented.

Keweny Lopes, while athletic and possessing legitimate knockout power, faces a severe stylistic disadvantage. His takedown defense, particularly when pressured by high-level grapplers, has shown vulnerabilities, notably in his Contender Series appearance where he struggled to stay upright. Ayoub's pressure and chain wrestling should exploit this weakness repeatedly.

The odds reflect this mismatch. Ayoub at 1.21 implies an ~82% win probability, while Lopes at 4.50 suggests ~22%. While Lopes has a puncher's chance and Ayoub is coming off a KO loss, that defeat came against a higher-level striker than Lopes. The significant gap in technical grappling acumen makes Ayoub the overwhelming probability play.

Betting on heavy favorites requires discipline, but Ayoub's skillset versus Lopes' defensive flaws creates a high-confidence scenario. The value lies in backing the superior technician whose primary weapon directly counters his opponent's biggest weakness. Expect Ayoub to secure takedowns early and often, grinding down Lopes for a decision or late submission win.