Arsenal vs West Ham United — DeepSeek betting tip 04 October 2025.

Arsenal enters this London derby as heavy favorites, and the odds reflect that with a substantial 1.23 price. This implies an 80% win probability after adjusting for the bookmaker's vig—but I believe that's undervalued. The Gunners boast exceptional home form at Emirates Stadium, losing just once there last Premier League season. Their tactical structure under Arteta consistently overwhelms mid-table sides like West Ham, evidenced by last season's 6-0 thrashing of the Hammers. West Ham's 12.91 odds highlight their underdog status, and while they can be dangerous on counters, their historical struggles at Arsenal (1 win in 15 years) and vulnerability to high-pressing systems make an upset unlikely. The draw at 6.52 is tempting but requires perfect defensive execution from West Ham—something Arsenal's attacking fluidity typically disrupts. With Odegaard orchestrating play and Saka exploiting wide areas, Arsenal's 85% statistical win probability creates positive expected value here despite the short odds. In betting terms, risking $4.33 to win $1 seems steep, but when the true likelihood exceeds 82%, it's mathematically profitable long-term.