Ball State Cardinals vs New Hampshire Wildcats — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

This FBS vs. FCS matchup presents intriguing value on the home underdog. Ball State's status as an FBS program gives them inherent advantages in depth, resources, and athleticism compared to FCS-level New Hampshire. While the Wildcats earned respect with their competitive 2024 performance against Central Michigan, that result inflates their perceived value here. Historically, FBS teams win over 85% of home games against FCS opponents, and Ball State handled similar competition comfortably last year with a 38-7 rout of Murray State.

New Hampshire's road favorite status seems disproportionate when examining structural factors. The Cardinals' home-field advantage in Muncie provides tangible benefits in crowd noise, travel fatigue, and officiating tendencies. Ball State returns key experience at skill positions that should exploit New Hampshire's defensive deficiencies against FBS-level speed.

The odds at 2.10 imply just a 45.5% win probability for Ball State – significantly undervaluing their roster advantages and program pedigree. New Hampshire's 1.76 price requires 56.9% certainty to break even, which overstates their road capabilities against FBS competition. With the market overcorrecting for New Hampshire's 2024 near-upset, Ball State offers clear positive expected value.