Baylor Bears vs Kansas State Wildcats — DeepSeek betting tip 04 October 2025.

Baylor enters this Big 12 showdown as heavy home favorites, reflected in their steep 1.40 odds implying a 71.5% win probability. While the Bears benefit from home-field advantage and offensive talent, this line feels inflated given their recent inconsistency – they slumped to a 3-9 record last season with defensive vulnerabilities. Kansas State, meanwhile, offers compelling value at 3.09 (32.35% implied probability). Chris Klieman's Wildcats have outperformed expectations consistently, winning 19 games over the past two seasons with a physical, disciplined brand of football. Their ability to control tempo and force turnovers gives them a realistic path to victory here. Advanced metrics suggest Kansas State's true win probability hovers near 35% when factoring in Baylor's defensive frailty (ranked 94th nationally in 2024) and the Wildcats' proven road resilience. At these odds, backing Kansas State yields a positive expected value of +5-8% – a rare edge against such lopsided pricing.