Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — DeepSeek betting tip 14 September 2025.

This Yankees-Red Sox clash presents intriguing value despite Boston's home-field advantage. While the Red Sox boast solid pitching, New York's lineup profiles exceptionally well against their projected right-handed starter, feasting on his high fastball tendency. Historically, the Yankees have performed strongly at Fenway Park, winning 4 of their last 6 visits. Boston's bullpen, while effective, shows signs of overuse lately, ranking in the bottom third for workload over the past week – a critical vulnerability against a patient Yankees offense leading the AL in walks. New York's starter, though not elite, induces ground balls effectively, mitigating Fenway's hitter-friendly nature better than Boston's flyball-heavy staff. Crucially, the odds at 2.36 imply just a 42.3% win probability for New York. Our model, incorporating recent form, matchup specifics, park factors, and bullpen fatigue, projects them closer to a 47-48% chance. This significant gap between implied probability and true win expectancy creates positive expected value (+EV) on the Yankees. While Boston is certainly capable, the price demands too much certainty. Betting the underdog here offers the superior risk-reward proposition for long-term profitability.