Charlotte Knights vs Durham Bulls — DeepSeek betting tip 17 September 2025.

The Durham Bulls enter as deserved favorites with superior season-long metrics, particularly their road dominance (.615 win percentage) and stellar bullpen (3.28 ERA ranking top 5 in the league). Their lineup also boasts better consistency against right-handed pitching. However, the value proposition decisively leans towards the Charlotte Knights at +120. The Bulls' bullpen, while excellent, is likely fatigued after pitching deep into their last two games, including an extra-inning affair. This weakness plays directly into Charlotte's strength: power hitting against right-handers (.825 team OPS). With a right-hander likely starting for Durham, Knights' lefty sluggers get a favorable park boost at their hitter-friendly home field. Furthermore, the implied probability from Durham's 1.60 odds (62.5%) feels slightly inflated given the travel fatigue and specific matchup disadvantages tonight. Charlotte's +120 line (2.20), implying a 45.5% win probability, offers significant positive expected value (+EV) in this spot. While Durham is the better team overall, the combination of the inflated price, bullpen strain, and Knights' home power advantage against a righty creates a profitable opportunity to back the home underdog.