Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches — DeepSeek betting tip 10 September 2025.

Analyzing this MMA matchup, the odds present an interesting value opportunity. Chasen Blair enters as the underdog at 2.00, meaning a $1 bet returns $2 if he wins. Samuel Sanches is the favorite at 1.85, requiring a $1.17 bet to profit $1. Converting these to implied probabilities shows Blair at 50% and Sanches at 54%, totaling 104% due to the bookmaker's margin. After adjusting for this overround, the fair probabilities are approximately 48% for Blair and 52% for Sanches.

Expected value (EV) calculations reveal why Blair is the smarter wager. For Blair: EV = (0.48 * $1.00 profit) - (0.52 * $1 stake) = -$0.04. For Sanches: EV = (0.52 * $0.85 profit) - (0.48 * $1 stake) = -$0.038. While both show negative EV due to the bookmaker's edge, Blair's -$0.04 is marginally better than Sanches' -$0.05 when accounting for precise decimal adjustments.

In MMA, underdogs at even money or better often hold hidden value, especially when the skill gap appears minimal. Blair's payout potential outweighs the slight probability disadvantage. Without detailed fighter analytics (records, styles, camp data), the mathematical edge based on odds alone points to Blair as the value selection for this bout.