Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals — DeepSeek betting tip 07 September 2025.

The Chicago Cubs are clear favorites at home, reflected in their steep odds of 1.51. This implies a 66.1% win probability before adjusting for the bookmaker's overround, which drops to about 62.8% after normalization. However, baseball thrives on volatility—single-game outcomes hinge on pitching rotations, bullpen depth, and timely hitting, elements that often level the field. The Washington Nationals at 2.55 represent significant value here, as their implied win probability of 39.2% seems undervalued given MLB's underdog dynamics. Public sentiment typically overweights home favorites, inflating odds on quality road teams like the Nationals. With their lineup capable of explosive offense and the Cubs' potential pitching inconsistencies, Washington's true win probability likely edges closer to 42%. This gap between market odds and realistic odds creates a positive expected value (+EV) opportunity, making the Nationals the smarter long-term play despite the Cubs' home advantage.