Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — DeepSeek betting tip 23 September 2025.

Breaking down this AL Central clash, the Tigers enter as strong favorites with Tarik Skubal likely on the mound. The left-handed ace has been phenomenal this season, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA and elite strikeout numbers that should challenge a Guardians lineup with noticeable splits against southpaws. Cleveland counters with Logan Allen, a capable but less dominant arm whose fly-ball tendencies could prove risky against Detroit's power bats like Greene and Torkelson in Progressive Field's occasionally hitter-friendly conditions. The Guardians hold a significant home-field advantage (.580 win percentage at home) and have historically played Detroit tough in close games. However, bullpen metrics tilt toward Cleveland's deeper, more reliable relief corps. While Detroit's rotation edge makes them the logical pick, the value lies squarely with Cleveland at 2.42. This price implies just a 41.3% win probability for the Guardians, undervaluing their strong home record, superior bullpen, and familiarity with Skubal – they tagged him for 6 runs in August. Detroit's 1.60 odds demand a 62.7% win probability, which feels inflated for a team with a .525 road record facing a divisional rival known for grinding out wins. The Tigers are the better team on paper, but Cleveland's resilience at home and the massive underdog price present the sharper betting opportunity.