Cody Chovancek vs Raphael Uchegbu — DeepSeek betting tip 17 September 2025.

Breaking down this UFC matchup, Raphael Uchegbu enters as a significant favorite with odds of 1.56, implying an implied probability of roughly 64.3%. Cody Chovancek, the underdog at 2.53, carries an appealing payout but faces a challenging task. Uchegbu's status as the favorite likely stems from observable advantages in key areas – potentially superior grappling control, proven finishing ability against comparable opponents, or consistent fight IQ demonstrated in recent performances.

Chovancek's appeal lies purely in the value of his odds. At +153, a $1 bet returns $2.53 if he wins. For this bet to be profitable long-term, Chovancek would need to win this specific fight more than 39.5% of the time – the breakeven probability implied by his odds. Does his skill set present a realistic path to victory? Does he possess fight-ending power, exceptional takedown defense, or durability that could frustrate Uchegbu's game plan?

The core betting principle here is value versus probability. While Uchegbu is statistically more likely to win, the odds on Chovancek are attractive enough to warrant consideration if his winning chances are perceived to be significantly higher than 39.5%. However, without compelling evidence of Chovancek holding distinct advantages or Uchegbu showing specific, exploitable vulnerabilities, backing the favorite aligns better with consistent profitability. Uchegbu's lower odds reflect a higher expected win frequency, making him the more reliable choice despite the smaller return.