Connor Patterson vs Jake McHugh — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

This matchup presents an intriguing value play on the underdog. Connor Patterson enters as a slight favorite at 1.74, implying a win probability around 57%. Jake McHugh sits at 1.95, translating to roughly 51% implied probability. The discrepancy in the odds compared to the implied probabilities immediately suggests potential value on McHugh. Stylistically, Patterson relies heavily on wrestling and grappling control. While effective, this approach demands significant energy and carries risk if takedowns are consistently stuffed.

McHugh possesses demonstrably strong takedown defense, boasting an estimated 78% success rate over his last five fights. His striking is more diverse and impactful, landing nearly 1.7 more significant strikes per minute than Patterson. Crucially, McHugh holds a distinct cardio advantage, winning 8 of his 9 fights that reached the third round, while Patterson has shown noticeable fatigue in the later stages of his two career losses.

The path to victory for McHugh is clear: utilize his reach advantage, defend the early takedown attempts from Patterson, and gradually take over the fight as it progresses into the later rounds. His striking volume and accuracy should accumulate damage, while Patterson's output tends to wane. At near even-money odds, McHugh offers significantly better value given his proven durability, takedown defense, and superior output, especially in fights extending beyond the first round. The price on the favorite doesn't adequately compensate for Patterson's cardio questions and McHugh's defensive capabilities.