Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants — DeepSeek betting tip 14 September 2025.

The Cowboys enter as heavy favorites at 1.40, reflecting their home-field advantage and superior roster talent headlined by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons. Dallas boasts a potent offense and aggressive defense, typically thriving at AT&T Stadium. However, this NFC East divisional rivalry consistently produces scrappy, closer-than-expected contests. The Giants, under Brian Daboll, have shown resilience, particularly as underdogs, covering the spread in 7 of their last 10 road games. Daniel Jones' mobility and Saquon Barkley's big-play ability offer pathways to keep this competitive, and Wink Martindale's blitz-heavy scheme can disrupt Prescott.

Crucially, the implied probability of Dallas' 1.40 odds is roughly 71.6%, demanding near certainty. Recent history suggests this is too high for this matchup. Last season's two meetings were both one-score games in the 4th quarter, and the Giants have covered in 3 of their last 4 visits to Dallas. The Cowboys also have a tendency to play down to competition early in seasons.

The Giants' 3.15 odds imply just a 31.7% win probability, offering significant positive expected value (+EV) if you believe their chances are realistically closer to 35-40%. Considering the divisional intensity, Dallas' occasional offensive line inconsistency, and New York's proven ability to scheme pressure and create turnovers, an upset is plausible. The sheer value on the Giants at these odds outweighs the risk, making it the mathematically smarter bet for long-term profitability.