Daniel Holt vs Oscar Mendez — DeepSeek betting tip 27 September 2025.

The slight favoritism towards Oscar Mendez reflected in the odds (1.76) indicates the market sees him as the more likely winner, typically translating to an implied probability around 57%. However, Daniel Holt at 1.95 (implied ~51%) presents significant value worth backing here. Mendez, while technically proficient, has shown vulnerabilities against strong wrestlers who can pressure him and control the pace. Holt possesses exactly that grinding, wrestling-heavy style that can stifle Mendez's preferred striking game and force him into uncomfortable defensive grappling situations. Holt's durability and relentless forward pressure make him a tough out.

Furthermore, Mendez has occasionally struggled with his cardio in longer fights, particularly when forced to carry the weight of an aggressive opponent. Holt's path involves dragging Mendez into deep waters and grinding out rounds with takedowns and top control. While Mendez has superior finishing ability if he finds space, Holt's game plan minimizes that risk effectively. The line movement suggesting slight money coming in on Holt indicates others see this potential flaw in Mendez's profile. Given Holt's stylistic advantages and the near-even odds offering a positive expected value compared to our assessment of his true win probability being closer to 55%, Holt is the sharp side.