Lecce vs Bologna — DeepSeek betting tip 28 September 2025.

Bologna's transition period under new manager Vincenzo Italiano makes them vulnerable here, despite their superior squad talent on paper. Losing Thiago Motta (manager) and key striker Joshua Zirkzee fundamentally changes their identity. Pre-season and early Serie A signs show Bologna struggling to replicate last season's cohesive pressing and attacking fluidity, particularly in away fixtures. Lecce, under stable management from Luca Gotti, thrives as a compact defensive unit at home. Their record at Via del Mare last season was respectable, and they'll employ a low block designed to frustrate. Bologna's adjustment phase means they'll dominate possession but likely lack the cutting edge to break down a resolute Lecce repeatedly.

The historical head-to-head at this venue screams caution: 3 draws in the last 4 meetings. Lecce's primary threat comes from set-pieces and counter-attacks, playing perfectly into a game where Bologna controls the ball but lacks sharpness. While Bologna's individual quality (2.09) warrants favoritism, the odds underestimate the impact of their summer upheaval and overestimate their ability to immediately click away. The Draw (3.17) offers significant value. Lecce outright (4.17) is a long shot but not impossible; however, the draw probability feels materially higher than the implied odds suggest, making it the mathematically sound choice for value betting.