Mario Pinto vs Jhonata Diniz — DeepSeek betting tip 11 October 2025.

Analyzing this MMA clash between Mario Pinto and Jhonata Diniz reveals compelling value on the underdog. Pinto, a submission specialist with solid grappling, enters as the favorite at 1.70 (implied 58.8% win probability). However, Diniz’s explosive striking power at 2.22 (implied 45.0%) is severely undervalued given his nine career KOs and current five-fight knockout streak. Pinto’s defensive vulnerabilities on the feet—evident in his lone KO loss—play directly into Diniz’s strengths. While Pinto’s ground game could dominate if he secures takedowns, Diniz’s improving takedown defense and first-round finishing ability offset this risk. Recent tape shows Diniz efficiently dismantling grapplers with precise counters and clinch work, suggesting Pinto’s aging movement (at 32) may struggle under pressure. The draw at 33.00 is statistically irrelevant in this finish-heavy matchup. Considering Diniz’s higher-than-implied win likelihood (closer to 50-55%) and Pinto’s inflated odds due to name recognition, Diniz offers clear positive expected value for bettors seeking profit.