Mateusz Strzelczyk vs Emilio Quissua — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

The massive odds disparity here demands scrutiny. While Emilio Quissua enters as the justifiable favorite (-370), Mateusz Strzelczyk's +245 price tag offers significant betting value in an inherently volatile sport like MMA. Quissua possesses superior athleticism and striking power, reflected in his favorite status. However, his recent loss to Lukasz Zawada exposed defensive grappling vulnerabilities – he was submitted in the second round. This flaw plays directly into Strzelczyk's greatest strength: his opportunistic submission game. Six of Strzelczyk's eleven wins come via submission, showcasing his danger on the mat.

Critically, Strzelczyk demonstrates remarkable durability. Despite eight losses, he has never been finished (all losses by decision), indicating he can withstand Quissua's early power and extend the fight. Quissua's takedown defense, sitting around 58%, is not impenetrable. If Strzelczyk weathers the initial storm and successfully implements his grappling, dragging Quissua into deep waters where submission opportunities arise, an upset is entirely feasible.

MMA is defined by unpredictability, and fights often hinge on exploiting a single weakness. At nearly 3.5-to-1 odds, betting on Strzelczyk to capitalize on Quissua's susceptibility to submissions and his own proven toughness represents a high-value proposition that the market has potentially overpriced. The risk is clear, but the potential reward significantly outweighs it given the specific stylistic matchup.