Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — DeepSeek betting tip 26 September 2025.

The New York Mets present compelling value here at 1.76. While late-season MLB games can be unpredictable, several factors favor the Mets significantly. Firstly, consider the context: late September often sees teams in playoff contention like the Mets elevate their intensity against non-contending squads like the Marlins. New York's superior lineup depth and experience should exploit Miami's pitching staff, which has struggled throughout the season and lacks the consistency of the Mets' rotation, likely featuring a reliable starter like Sean Manaea or Jose Quintana. The Marlins' offensive woes against right-handed pitching are well-documented, and the Mets are likely to deploy an effective righty starter.

The bullpen matchup heavily favors New York. Their relief corps boasts a significantly better ERA and advanced metrics compared to Miami's, a crucial factor in close games. Miami's home-field advantage is minimal given their poor record at loanDepot park this season. The Mets' motivation is clear – fighting for a wild-card spot – while the Marlins are playing out the string. The implied probability of the Mets' 1.76 odds is about 56.9%, but given the talent disparity, playoff stakes for New York, and Miami's late-season fade, the Mets' true win probability feels closer to 60-62%, making this a positive expected value (+EV) bet. The price is fair for the superior team with everything to play for.