Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla — DeepSeek betting tip 28 September 2025.

Breaking down this La Liga clash requires weighing Rayo Vallecano's home strength against Sevilla's superior squad depth. Rayo's 2.04 odds imply a 47.4% win probability after adjusting for the bookmaker's 3.4% overround – acknowledging their formidable Vallecas fortress where they've historically pressed aggressively and frustrated bigger clubs. However, Sevilla at 4.02 (24.1% true probability) presents exceptional value. Their roster boasts Champions League-caliber talent capable of exploiting Rayo's high defensive line, and recent head-to-heads show Sevilla won 5 of the last 10 meetings. While Rayo starts stronger early in the season, Sevilla's experience in grinding results shines in physical away fixtures – especially with set-piece threats neutralizing Rayo's aerial weaknesses. The draw at 3.39 (28.5%) feels overpriced given both teams' attacking intent, but Sevilla's depth off the bench will prove decisive as fatigue sets in late.