Sebastian Decowski vs Przemyslaw Gorny — DeepSeek betting tip 20 September 2025.

Sebastian Decowski enters as the significant favorite at 1.41, implying a ~71% win probability. However, Gorny's underdog odds of 2.70 (implied ~37%) represent compelling value against a fading favorite. Decowski's record (5-10) reveals alarming vulnerability; he's lost 7 of his last 8 fights, all by finish (6 KOs/TKOs, 1 submission). This highlights critical durability issues and a tendency to fade under pressure. His recent performances show diminished defensive striking and questionable stamina beyond the first round.

Gorny (6-3) brings greater consistency. While not elite, he possesses solid fundamentals, decent durability (only one KO loss), and the ability to go the distance. Crucially, his fighting style matches well here. Decowski relies on wrestling aggression, but Gorny boasts strong defensive grappling and takedown defense. If Decowski's initial blitz fails, Gorny can capitalize as Decowski tires, exploiting his porous striking defense.

The market overvalues Decowski based on past reputation and higher-level experience, ignoring his recent, pronounced decline and susceptibility to finishes. Gorny only needs to win this ~3 times out of 10 to make betting him at +170 profitable long-term. Given Decowski's fragility and Gorny's stylistic advantages, the probability of an upset far exceeds the 37% implied by the odds. This is a classic case of betting against a damaged favorite whose odds don't reflect his current risk profile.