Adrian Mannarino vs Matteo Berrettini — Gemini betting tip 01 October 2025.

This opening-round clash at the Shanghai Masters presents a fascinating contrast in styles between the raw power of Matteo Berrettini and the unorthodox craft of Adrian Mannarino. Berrettini, priced as the favorite at 1.73, brings a game built on two of the most potent shots in modern tennis: a thunderous serve and a forehand that can end points from any position on the court. On the fast-playing hard courts of Shanghai, this simple but devastating strategy of 'serve +1' is incredibly effective, allowing him to dictate play and keep rallies short.

Adrian Mannarino, the veteran Frenchman offered at 2.22, is a unique puzzle for any opponent. As a left-hander with remarkably flat groundstrokes and a compact swing, he thrives on redirecting pace and taking time away from his rivals. His low, skidding shots can be a nightmare to handle, especially for players who rely on rhythm and heavy topspin. Mannarino's game plan will be to absorb Berrettini's power, jam him on the backhand side, and use his guile to move the big Italian around the court, hoping to draw errors.

However, history and the matchup dynamics lean heavily in Berrettini's favor. The two have met twice before, with Berrettini winning both encounters in straight sets back in 2021, once on grass and, crucially, once on a hard court at the ATP Cup. In those matches, Mannarino's defense simply couldn't withstand the constant barrage. The Italian's slice backhand, often a target for opponents, is less of a liability against Mannarino's flat ball, as he doesn't have to generate his own pace as much. Furthermore, Berrettini's massive serve is the ultimate neutralizer; it will earn him a high percentage of free points, relieving pressure and preventing Mannarino from getting a foothold in the Italian's service games.

While Mannarino's consistency and tricky style give him a puncher's chance, especially if Berrettini is having an off day with his first serve, the fundamental mismatch is hard to ignore. Berrettini possesses the superior weapons to control the outcome of this match. As long as he is physically fit and his serve is firing, he should be able to overpower Mannarino's defenses and punch his ticket to the next round. The 1.73 odds reflect Berrettini's higher ceiling and proven advantage in this specific matchup, making him the logical and stronger bet.