Arizona State Sun Devils vs TCU Horned Frogs — Gemini betting tip 27 September 2025.

This late September non-conference clash pits two Big 12 foes against each other in what should be an offensive showcase. Arizona State, playing in the notoriously difficult environment of Sun Devil Stadium, holds a significant edge before a single snap is taken. The desert heat in Tempe, even for a night game, can be a grueling factor for visiting teams, especially one traveling from Texas.

By the 2025 season, Kenny Dillingham will be in his third year at the helm for the Sun Devils. This is typically the year a coach's system and culture truly take root. We expect to see a program that reflects his offensive identity: fast-paced, creative, and aggressive. Having moved to the Big 12 in 2024, ASU will be battle-tested and accustomed to the week-in, week-out grind of the conference. This game, while non-conference, will feel like a crucial mid-season conference game, and ASU's home-field advantage cannot be overstated.

On the other side, TCU and coach Sonny Dykes are no strangers to high-powered offense. The Horned Frogs consistently field teams that can score in bunches and challenge any defense. However, their performance on the road, particularly defensively, has been inconsistent at times. Traveling to Tempe for this matchup presents a significant hurdle. While they will have the offensive firepower to keep pace, can their defense hold up for four quarters in a hostile environment against an offense that should be hitting its stride under Dillingham?

The betting line reflects this dynamic. Arizona State is the favorite at 1.65, indicating the market's respect for their home-field advantage and projected program trajectory. While TCU at 2.34 offers some value for an underdog with explosive potential, the safer and more logical bet is on the home team. ASU will be more comfortable, more prepared for the conditions, and should have a program identity that is more solidified. In a game that projects to be a close, high-scoring affair, the environmental factors and coaching stability tip the scales firmly in favor of the Sun Devils.