Daniel Weichel vs Abou Tounkara — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup presents a classic MMA narrative: the seasoned veteran against the hungry up-and-comer. Daniel Weichel, a name familiar to long-time fans of European MMA and Bellator, enters this contest as the significant favorite, and for good reason. With a career spanning well over a decade and dozens of professional fights, Weichel brings a level of experience and fight IQ that simply cannot be taught in the gym. His game is built on a foundation of elite grappling and a suffocating submission arsenal. Weichel is a master of controlling the pace and location of the fight, consistently dragging his opponents into deep water on the mat where he operates with surgical precision.

Abou Tounkara, the underdog at 2.90, likely possesses the physical advantages of youth, speed, and explosive power. His clearest path to victory is to keep this fight standing at all costs. He needs to leverage his athleticism to maintain distance, defend takedowns, and hunt for a knockout blow. The challenge for Tounkara is immense; he must not only avoid the takedown attempts from a high-level specialist but also show the composure and defensive awareness to not get caught in a submission during a scramble. Many powerful strikers have seen their lights dimmed not by a punch, but by a rear-naked choke they never saw coming.

The odds reflect this stylistic dynamic perfectly. Weichel's price of 1.34 indicates a high probability of success, banking on his proven ability to neutralize strikers and implement his grappling-heavy game plan. While Tounkara has a puncher's chance, as anyone does in this sport, the technical and experiential chasm is vast. Weichel has weathered storms from more dangerous and credentialed opponents than Tounkara throughout his career. Expect the German veteran to methodically close the distance, survive any early flurries, and eventually secure a takedown. From there, it becomes a matter of time before he finds a dominant position and locks in a fight-ending submission or grinds out a clear-cut decision victory.