Dario Bellandi vs Claudio Ribeiro — Gemini betting tip 04 October 2025.

This middleweight clash presents a fascinating and classic MMA stylistic puzzle: the explosive power-puncher versus the methodical grappling specialist. Claudio Ribeiro, the underdog at 2.15, is a fighter who lives and dies by the sword. His entire game plan is built around finding a home for his devastating overhand right or a fight-ending flurry. He possesses genuine one-punch knockout power that can change the complexion of a fight in an instant, making him a terrifying opponent for anyone in the division. His aggression is his greatest asset, as he often storms out of the gate looking for an early finish. However, this high-risk, high-reward style also exposes significant defensive liabilities, particularly in the grappling department. When opponents can weather his initial storm and drag him into deep waters, Ribeiro's cardio and takedown defense have proven to be major question marks.

Enter Dario Bellandi, the slight favorite at 1.74. The Italian fighter known as "The Bell" is a stark contrast to Ribeiro. His foundation is built on a suffocating grappling game, honed through years of judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Bellandi is not a passive grappler; he actively chains takedown attempts, from body locks in the clinch to single and double-leg shots from a distance. Once the fight hits the canvas, he is a master of control, using heavy top pressure to wear his opponents down, hunt for submissions, or land effective ground-and-pound. While his striking is not as flashy or powerful as Ribeiro's, it has shown steady improvement and serves its purpose: to close the distance safely and set up his takedowns.

The outcome of this fight will be determined by who can impose their will and dictate where the action takes place. For Ribeiro, the path to victory is clear and narrow: keep the fight standing at all costs, manage distance, and land a clean, powerful shot. The first round will be his most dangerous period. For Bellandi, the path is broader and more sustainable over 15 minutes. He must be defensively sound on the feet, use his footwork to avoid the pocket, and survive the initial blitz. His key to victory lies in initiating the clinch against the fence, wearing Ribeiro down, and eventually securing a takedown.

While Ribeiro's power makes him a live underdog capable of ending the fight at any moment, Bellandi's superior fight IQ and more reliable, multi-faceted skill set give him the edge. He has a clear and tested strategy for neutralizing explosive strikers. As long as he respects Ribeiro's power and executes his game plan with discipline, he should be able to drag the Brazilian into his world on the mat. There, Bellandi holds an overwhelming advantage and can grind out a decision or find a late submission. The price of 1.74 reflects this dynamic, offering solid value on the more complete martial artist.