Jim Crute vs Ivan Erslan — Gemini betting tip 28 September 2025.

This light heavyweight clash presents a quintessential striker versus grappler dynamic, a puzzle that often defines MMA matchmaking. On one side, we have Jim Crute, a relentless Australian grappler desperate to snap a difficult skid and re-establish himself in the division. On the other, Ivan Erslan, a Croatian powerhouse with dynamite in his hands, looks to make a statement in his highest-profile fight to date. The odds reflect this stylistic contrast, with Crute positioned as the favorite at 1.49, while Erslan offers significant value as the underdog at 2.73.

Jim "The Brute" Crute's game plan is no secret. He is a suffocating force on the ground, possessing a tenacious wrestling attack and a slick submission arsenal. His path to victory involves closing the distance, enduring whatever fire comes his way, and dragging the fight into his world on the canvas. However, his recent record is concerning. A string of tough losses to top-tier opponents like Anthony Smith and Jamahal Hill, where his defensive striking and chin were exposed, raises legitimate questions. His two-fight series with Alonzo Menifield (a draw and a submission loss) further highlighted his vulnerabilities. Crute must prove that his time away has been spent shoring up these weaknesses, as he cannot afford to be a stationary target for a striker of Erslan's caliber.

Ivan Erslan built his reputation in KSW as a formidable knockout artist. His entire strategy revolves around keeping the fight standing, where he can unleash his powerful combinations. He possesses legitimate one-punch finishing ability and will undoubtedly be hunting for Crute's chin from the opening bell. Erslan's primary challenge will be his takedown defense. While he has shown competence in fending off wrestlers in the European scene, he has never faced a grappler as determined and physically strong as Jim Crute. If Erslan can't keep Crute off his hips and maintain striking range, he will find himself in deep water against a submission specialist.

Ultimately, this fight will be decided by who can dictate the geography of the octagon. While Erslan's power makes him a very live underdog and a tempting bet at 2.73, the stylistic matchup heavily favors the Australian. Crute's level of competition in the UFC has been significantly higher, and even in his losses, he has faced the division's elite. He is accustomed to facing dangerous strikers and has a clear, proven method for neutralizing them. Expect Crute to weather an early storm, use his relentless pressure to secure a takedown, and eventually find a submission victory. His grappling is simply on another level, and that should be the deciding factor.