Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This middleweight clash presents a classic UFC dynamic: the established veteran against the hopeful newcomer. Dusko 'Thunder' Todorovic enters as the heavy favorite with odds of -322, and for good reason. His tenure in the UFC has seen him face a gauntlet of tough opponents, providing him with invaluable experience that Jose Daniel Medina simply does not possess at this level. While Todorovic's 3-4 record in the promotion might not leap off the page, the context of those fights is crucial. His losses have come against dangerous and high-level competition, and he's demonstrated a potent offensive grappling game that has been his key to victory.

Jose Daniel 'The Sasquatch' Medina, the underdog at 3.63, is not to be taken lightly. He boasts a solid 11-2 record built on the regional circuit and has shown finishing ability with both strikes and submissions. He's a physically imposing middleweight who will likely have a size advantage. However, his performance on Dana White's Contender Series was telling. He was largely controlled by a superior grappler, which exposed a potential flaw in his game that a fighter like Todorovic is perfectly equipped to exploit. While Medina is durable, having never been finished, durability alone doesn't win fights in the UFC.

The crux of this matchup lies in where the fight takes place. If it remains a striking battle, Medina's power gives him a legitimate puncher's chance, especially considering Todorovic has been knocked out in three of his four losses. This is where the value on Medina at 3.63 becomes tempting for underdog hunters. However, betting on a single outcome like a knockout against a fighter who knows his own weakness is a risky proposition. Todorovic and his camp are undoubtedly aware of his vulnerability on the feet and will have a game plan centered around mitigating that risk.

Ultimately, Todorovic's path to victory is clearer and more reliable. Expect him to use pressure and clinch work to negate Medina's power and get the fight to the mat. Once there, Todorovic's top control, ground-and-pound, and submission skills are a level above what Medina has likely faced. While the price of 1.31 is steep and doesn't offer great value from a betting perspective, it accurately reflects the most probable outcome. Todorovic's experience and specialized grappling skill set should be enough to neutralize the raw power of the UFC newcomer and secure the win, likely via ground-and-pound TKO or submission.