Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova — Gemini betting tip 05 September 2025.

This projects as a blockbuster showdown at the US Open, pitting two of the most powerful ball-strikers on the WTA tour against each other. Naomi Osaka, a two-time champion at Flushing Meadows, enters as the favorite, and for good reason. Her game is tailor-made for the fast hard courts of New York. When her serve is firing and her forehand is finding its mark, she is nearly unplayable. Osaka possesses the rare ability to dictate play from the very first shot, ending points quickly and building overwhelming momentum. Her history here is a massive psychological advantage; she has navigated the intense pressure of the New York crowds and the final weekend of a major to lift the trophy twice. This isn't just another tournament for her; it's her most successful and comfortable stage.

However, Amanda Anisimova is far from a simple stepping stone. The young American has the firepower to match Osaka from the baseline and has proven she is not intimidated by the four-time major champion. We need only look back to the 2022 Australian Open, where Anisimova stunned the then-defending champion in a thrilling three-set battle. Her style of taking the ball incredibly early, coupled with her flat, penetrating groundstrokes, can rush Osaka and prevent her from setting up her own powerful shots. Anisimova's backhand down the line is a world-class weapon that can disrupt rallies and create openings against anyone. As an American playing at her home slam, she will also have plenty of crowd support.

The betting odds reflect the dangerous nature of this matchup, with Osaka priced at 1.79 and Anisimova a live underdog at 2.12. This indicates that the bookmakers see this as a very competitive affair, and they are right to do so. Anisimova has the tools and the head-to-head precedent to make this extremely difficult for Osaka. The key will likely come down to the serve and composure in critical moments. While Anisimova can go toe-to-toe in baseline exchanges, Osaka's serve is the single biggest weapon on the court. It's a shot that can earn her free points and bail her out of trouble, a luxury Anisimova doesn't possess to the same degree.

In a match of fine margins, I'm siding with the player who has been to the summit at this specific event. While Anisimova has the game to pull off the upset, Osaka's championship pedigree at the US Open is the deciding factor. In the high-pressure moments, expect Osaka's serve and her experience on Arthur Ashe Stadium to see her through a tough, hard-hitting contest.