Pedro Guevara vs Adrian Curiel Dominguez — Gemini betting tip 07 September 2025.

This is the rubber match, the trilogy fight that promises to settle the score between two contrasting Mexican warriors. The rivalry between Pedro Guevara and Adrian Curiel Dominguez is perfectly poised at one win apiece, with each victory showcasing the fighter's core strengths. This third encounter is a classic boxer versus puncher narrative, and the outcome will hinge on which style can impose its will.

In their first meeting in November 2023, Adrian Curiel shocked the world with a spectacular second-round knockout to capture the IBF light flyweight title. He demonstrated his devastating, one-punch power, proving that any lapse in concentration against him can be fatal. Curiel is the younger, more aggressive fighter who stalks his opponents, constantly searching for the opening to land his thunderous right hand. His path to victory is clear and brutal: close the distance, cut off the ring, and land the knockout blow.

The rematch in May 2024 told a completely different story. Pedro Guevara, a seasoned veteran and former champion, made brilliant tactical adjustments. Instead of engaging in a firefight, he utilized his superior ring IQ, footwork, and a disciplined jab to control the distance. He turned the bout into a technical boxing match, frustrating Curiel and preventing him from setting his feet to unleash his power. Guevara's performance was a masterclass in resilience and strategy, earning him a split decision victory to reclaim his title. He proved he has the blueprint to defuse Curiel's power.

For this trilogy fight, the psychological and tactical edges favor Guevara. He has already weathered the storm and solved the puzzle Curiel presents. At 35, he knows he cannot rely on durability but must lean on his experience and skill. He will likely employ the same strategy: stick and move, pile up points from the outside, and avoid dangerous exchanges. Curiel, on the other hand, must find an answer to Guevara's movement. He can't simply wait for one big shot; he needs to be more effective at cutting off the ring and setting traps. While Curiel's power at 2.55 makes him a live underdog in every second of the fight, the more probable outcome is that the crafty veteran once again outboxes the powerful puncher. Guevara at 1.54 is the favorite for a reason; he has the more repeatable game plan.