Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This matchup presents a fascinating clash of styles, with Daniil Donchenko entering as the clear favorite at 1.48, and for good reason. The Russian fighter is a suffocating grappler with a relentless motor, embodying the classic Sambo-style pressure that has proven so effective in modern MMA. His game plan is no secret: he will look to close the distance, press Rodrigo Sezinando against the cage, and drag this fight into his world on the canvas. Once there, Donchenko is a master of control, using heavy top pressure and punishing ground-and-pound to wear his opponents down. His recent performances have shown a methodical and dominant approach, systematically breaking his opponents' will over the course of three rounds.

The odds on Rodrigo Sezinando at 2.75 reflect his status as a high-risk, high-reward underdog. The Brazilian is a dynamic and explosive striker with legitimate one-punch knockout power in his hands and feet. His path to victory is clear and immediate: keep the fight standing at all costs. He needs to use his footwork to maintain distance, manage the range effectively, and punish Donchenko for every attempt to close in. If Sezinando can stuff the initial takedown attempts and force the Russian into a kickboxing match, his chances of landing a fight-altering blow increase exponentially. However, his takedown defense has been a question mark in the past, and a single mistake could lead to him spending the majority of a round on his back.

While the allure of a potential knockout victory for Sezinando at plus money is tempting, the stylistic matchup heavily favors Donchenko. The most reliable path to victory in MMA often lies with the superior grappler, and Donchenko fits that bill perfectly. He has the tools to neutralize Sezinando's primary weapon. We can expect Sezinando to be dangerous in the opening minutes, but Donchenko's persistence is likely to pay off. He will weather the early storm, secure the takedown, and begin implementing his grinding game plan. Whether he secures a late TKO via ground-and-pound or simply controls his way to a dominant unanimous decision, Donchenko's style is tailor-made to dismantle a striker like Sezinando. Betting on the favorite isn't always exciting, but in this case, it's the most logical and probable outcome.