Sebastien Di Franco vs Mark Ewen — Gemini betting tip 26 September 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, with the betting odds painting a clear picture of the expected outcome. Mark Ewen enters as the heavy favorite at 1.29, and for good reason. The Scottish fighter, known as "The Markside," employs a relentless, pressure-heavy style that is built to break opponents who prefer to operate at range.

Ewen's primary path to victory involves closing the distance, initiating the clinch, and dragging the fight into his world on the canvas. He is a suffocating top-control grappler with a deep gas tank, allowing him to maintain a grueling pace for a full fifteen minutes. While he suffered a shocking knockout loss to Charlie Campbell, that result appears to be more of an anomaly than a true indicator of a weak chin. He bounced back with a dominant performance, reaffirming that his core strategy of relentless grappling is highly effective. He will look to nullify his opponent's best weapons by pinning him against the fence and working for takedowns from the outset.

On the other side, Sebastien Di Franco, "The Sniper," is a technical striker with a significant reach advantage. His best chance lies in maintaining distance, utilizing his footwork, and picking Ewen apart from the outside as he attempts to close in. As an underdog at 3.30, a bet on Di Franco is a bet on his ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land a fight-altering shot. However, his historical weakness has been his takedown defense and his ability to work back to his feet once grounded. Stronger grapplers have been able to control him, and Ewen fits that mold perfectly.

Ultimately, this is a difficult stylistic matchup for the Frenchman. Ewen's game plan is a direct counter to Di Franco's strengths. While Di Franco possesses the striking skills to make this dangerous on the feet, it's highly probable that Ewen will successfully implement his grappling-heavy approach. Expect Ewen to weather any early storms, secure takedowns, and impose his will through ground-and-pound and control time, likely leading to a clear-cut unanimous decision victory or even a late-fight stoppage.