Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas State Bobcats — Grok betting tip 14 September 2025.

As we gear up for this intriguing NCAAF matchup between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Texas State Bobcats on September 13, 2025, at 22:30 UTC, there's plenty to unpack for betting enthusiasts. Arizona State, coming from the competitive Big 12 conference, has been building momentum under head coach Kenny Dillingham. Last season, they showed flashes of brilliance with a potent offense led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who threw for over 2,000 yards, and a rushing attack that averaged nearly 150 yards per game. Their defense, while not elite, has improved in stopping the run, which could be key against Texas State's ground game.

On the other side, the Texas State Bobcats from the Sun Belt conference are no pushovers. Under coach G.J. Kinne, they've transformed into a high-scoring team, averaging over 35 points per game in recent seasons. Quarterback Jordan McCloud is a dual-threat dynamo, capable of big plays through the air and on the ground. However, their defense has been a weak link, often giving up chunk yards, especially against Power 5 opponents. This game marks a step up in competition for the Bobcats, who have historically struggled in non-conference games against stronger programs.

Looking at the odds, Arizona State is listed as a heavy favorite at 1.13, implying about an 88% chance of victory, while Texas State sits at 6.30 as the underdog. These lines reflect the talent disparity, with Arizona State boasting superior recruiting classes and depth. But let's dive deeper into the stats. Arizona State's home-field advantage at Mountain America Stadium can't be understated – they've won their last five home openers convincingly. In contrast, Texas State has a 2-8 record in their last 10 road games against FBS teams.

Key matchups to watch: Arizona State's defensive line versus Texas State's offensive front. If the Sun Devils can pressure McCloud, it could force turnovers and short possessions. Offensively, Arizona State's running back Cam Skattebo is a beast, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and he could exploit the Bobcats' 120th-ranked run defense from last year. Weather in Tempe might play a factor too – expect warm conditions that favor the home team's conditioning.

From a betting perspective, while the moneyline on Arizona State offers low returns (bet $778 to win $100), it's the safer play for consistent profits. However, if you're chasing value, Texas State's explosive offense could keep it close, perhaps covering a spread if it's around 14-17 points (though we're focusing on moneyline here). Historically, underdogs like Texas State have pulled off upsets in September non-conference games about 15% of the time, but against a motivated Arizona State team aiming for a bowl berth, I see the Sun Devils pulling away in the second half.

Injuries could sway things – keep an eye on Arizona State's secondary, which dealt with some nicks last season. For Texas State, their receiving corps is deep, but any absence of key linemen could doom them. Advanced metrics like SP+ rankings project Arizona State with a 20+ point edge, reinforcing the favorite status.

Ultimately, my prediction leans towards Arizona State dominating at home. Betting $1 on them at 1.13 would net about $1.13 total, a small but probable gain. For those building a parlay, this is a solid leg. If Texas State covers or wins, it'd be a shocker, but based on form, talent, and home advantage, the Sun Devils are the pick to bank on for profitability in this spot.