Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Grok betting tip 26 September 2025.

As we gear up for this classic NL Central rivalry matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals on September 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field, the stage is set for an exciting clash. The Cubs, coming off a strong season, have been dominant at home, boasting a impressive record against divisional foes. With their ace pitcher likely taking the mound—someone like Justin Steele, who's been lights out with a sub-3.00 ERA in recent starts—the Cubs have the edge in starting pitching.

Looking at the odds, the Cubs are listed at 1.57, making them solid favorites, while the Cardinals sit at 2.46 as underdogs. This reflects Chicago's recent form, where they've won 7 of their last 10 games, fueled by a potent offense led by players like Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, who have been raking against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, with a batting average dipping below .250 away from Busch Stadium. Their bullpen has also shown vulnerabilities, allowing over 4 runs per game in the last month.

Diving deeper into the stats, the Cubs' home-field advantage can't be overstated. Wrigley Field's unique dimensions and passionate crowd often intimidate visiting teams, and historically, Chicago has owned this matchup, winning 60% of home games against St. Louis over the past five years. Key injuries might play a role too; if the Cardinals are without a star like Paul Goldschmidt due to nagging issues, their lineup weakens significantly. Meanwhile, the Cubs' depth allows them to weather any absences better.

From a betting perspective, laying the juice on the Cubs at 1.57 might seem steep, but the value is there given the mismatches. The Cardinals' starter, perhaps Miles Mikolas, has a 4.50 ERA on the road, which doesn't inspire confidence against Chicago's hitters. Weather could factor in—late September in Chicago often brings cooler temps, favoring pitchers, and the Cubs' staff thrives in those conditions.

Advanced metrics support this lean too. According to Fangraphs, the Cubs have a higher wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) against the types of pitchers St. Louis throws out there. Their defensive metrics, like defensive runs saved, also rank in the top 10 league-wide, potentially stifling the Cardinals' offense, which relies heavily on power but has been inconsistent.

Of course, baseball is unpredictable, and the Cardinals have upset potential with young talents like Nolan Gorman who can go yard at any moment. But overall, the data points to a Cubs victory. If you're betting $1, putting it on Chicago could yield about $0.57 profit, assuming the odds hold. For those seeking more value, consider player props, but for straight moneyline, Cubs are the play.

In summary, this game's outcome hinges on pitching dominance and home advantage, tilting heavily towards the Cubs. It's a bet worth considering for anyone looking to capitalize on a rivalry game with clear edges.