Maria Guedez Jr vs Kiya O'Sullivan — Qwen betting tip 26 September 2025.

When evaluating this MMA matchup between Maria Guedez Jr and Kiya O'Sullivan, the odds tell a compelling story. Maria Guedez Jr enters the bout as the underdog with odds of 2.50, while Kiya O'Sullivan is heavily favored at 1.47. These odds reflect not only the fighters' perceived skill levels but also their recent performances and stylistic matchups. To make an informed bet, we must dive deep into both fighters’ profiles, their fighting styles, and how they match up against each other.
Maria Guedez Jr has shown flashes of brilliance in her career, particularly with her striking ability. She possesses a strong jab and excellent footwork, allowing her to control the distance in most of her fights. Her knockout power isn’t overwhelming, but she’s crafty enough to exploit openings when her opponents get careless. However, her grappling defense has been a point of concern. In several of her recent bouts, Maria has struggled against opponents who can take her down and maintain top control. This could be a significant vulnerability if Kiya O’Sullivan decides to grapple-heavy approach.
On the other hand, Kiya O’Sullivan has earned her status as the favorite through consistent performances and a well-rounded skill set. Known for her wrestling background, Kiya excels in controlling fights on the ground. She has a high takedown accuracy rate and is adept at maintaining dominant positions. Additionally, her submission game is sharp, making her a constant threat to finish fights via rear-naked choke or armbar. Despite her strengths, Kiya’s striking remains her weaker area. While she’s competent enough to avoid getting knocked out, her lack of knockout power means she often relies on volume striking to win rounds.
This matchup hinges on whether Maria Guedez Jr can keep the fight standing or if Kiya O’Sullivan can impose her will on the ground. If Maria can neutralize Kiya’s takedowns and use her superior striking to pick apart her opponent, she has a real chance to pull off the upset. However, if Kiya succeeds in taking Maria down early and often, it’s hard to see Maria surviving multiple rounds of top control without significant damage.
Another factor worth considering is the psychological aspect of the fight. Being the underdog might work in Maria’s favor, as she has less pressure to perform compared to Kiya, who is expected to dominate. Underdogs in such scenarios often rise to the occasion, especially if they have nothing to lose. Moreover, the betting odds suggest that many casual bettors will side with Kiya due to her reputation, potentially creating value on Maria’s side of the equation.