Napoli vs Pisa — Qwen betting tip 22 September 2025.

Napoli enters this Serie A clash against Pisa as the heavy favorite, and for good reason. The Partenopei have consistently showcased their attacking prowess in recent seasons, finishing at the top of the table in 2022-23 and maintaining a strong squad depth despite some player departures. Their home form is particularly formidable, with Napoli having lost only a handful of matches at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona over the past two years. Under their current manager, they’ve refined an aggressive pressing style that overwhelms mid-table and lower-tier teams like Pisa. This tactical approach has led to numerous high-scoring victories, making them a reliable bet in matches where they are expected to dominate possession and dictate the tempo.
Historically, newly-promoted sides like Pisa struggle during their first few seasons back in Serie A. While they’ve shown glimpses of resilience in previous campaigns, their overall performance metrics—such as goals conceded per game and defensive organization—paint a concerning picture. Against stronger opponents, they often sit deep and attempt to absorb pressure, which can lead to low xG (expected goals) totals and minimal offensive output. Additionally, their away record tends to be poor, with many defeats coming by multiple-goal margins. Given the gulf in quality between these two squads, it’s hard to envision Pisa pulling off an upset here, especially when considering Napoli’s recent dominance in similar matchups.
From a statistical perspective, Napoli's superiority becomes even clearer. Over the last ten home games, Napoli averages 2.4 goals per match while conceding just 0.8 on average. Meanwhile, Pisa struggles defensively, allowing nearly twice as many goals away from home compared to their home fixtures. When analyzing head-to-head encounters—or comparable fixtures involving Napoli versus newly-promoted teams—the trend overwhelmingly favors Napoli. They’ve won all but one of their last five meetings against such opponents, scoring three or more goals in four of those contests. These patterns suggest not only a likely victory for Napoli but also the potential for a comfortable margin of success.
Bookmaker odds reflect this disparity accurately, with Napoli priced at 1.28, indicating an implied probability of around 78%. While betting on heavily favored teams might seem unappealing due to the low returns, the reliability of Napoli’s results makes them a safe option for long-term profitability. By contrast, backing Pisa at 12.17 represents a significant risk given their underwhelming performances in tougher fixtures. Even the draw, priced at 5.67, feels unlikely based on Napoli’s relentless attacking intent and ability to break down packed defenses.