Amin Ayoub vs Donovan Desmae — ChatGPT betting tip 26 September 2025.

The market has drawn a hard line in the sand: Amin Ayoub is a massive favorite at 1.13, while Donovan Desmae sits at a long-shot 5.25. That pricing implies roughly an 89% chance for Ayoub and about 19% for Desmae. In pure matchup terms, Ayoub deserves to be favored, but the question smart bettors should ask is whether the gap is truly that wide for a volatile, three-round MMA fight.

Ayoub’s game is built on composure and process. He strikes well in the open, uses a dependable jab and straight shots to keep rhythm, and he’s comfortable steering opponents toward the fence where his timing-based level changes shine. When he’s on top, he’s heavy, patient, and good at denying clean stand-ups. Over 15 minutes, that kind of control tends to bank minutes and discourage risk-taking from the other side.

Desmae brings a different kind of danger—he’s less about minute-winning and more about moment-stealing. He throws with intent, mixes in low kicks that can slow the pace of a pressure grappler, and he has a knack for finding counters during entries, especially when opponents level change without layered setups. He’s also gritty and willing to bite down late, which keeps him live even if he drops the first round.

Grappling is the fulcrum. If Ayoub starts chaining doubles to fence rides and mat returns, this can look like a clear favorite performance. Yet Desmae’s first-layer takedown defense, ability to frame and build to a knee, and willingness to scramble can turn those sequences into coin flips rather than foregone conclusions. Each successful get-up forces Ayoub to spend energy and re-approach safely.

Cardio and pacing matter. Ayoub typically manages energy well early and prefers to control tempo. Desmae tends to accept some early damage in exchange for reads, then opens up once he has timing. That profile often produces a late-round swing, where a single impactful moment can erase minutes of control on the cards—or finish the fight outright.

From a price perspective, this is the crux: the breakeven for 5.25 is about 19%. If you believe Desmae wins this fight even once in four tries—through counters on entries, leg-kick disruption into combinations, or a late surge against a slightly slowing top player—you’re north of that threshold. Even a conservative 24–26% true win rate would make the underdog side a positive expected value play.

Ayoub by decision or attritional top control is the chalk path, and it’s credible. But the combination of MMA variance, Desmae’s counter windows against level changes, and his stubborn durability creates a live-dog profile that the current number likely undervalues. Lopsided moneylines in this sport are often more about public safety than true edges.

The bet, then, is simple and price-driven: take a small shot on Desmae at 5.25. You’re leveraging finishing upside and swingy scoring dynamics at a number that doesn’t need him to win often to be profitable long-term. I’ll respect Ayoub’s process—but I’ll side with the underdog value.