Andrzej Grzebyk vs Muslim Tulshaev — ChatGPT betting tip 20 September 2025.

This is a classic striker versus pressure-wrestler matchup, and the pricing creates a clear value angle. The market leans toward Andrzej Grzebyk at 1.63, with Muslim Tulshaev sitting as the underdog at 2.20. That implies break-evens of roughly 61.5% for Grzebyk and 45.5% for Tulshaev. In a bout likely decided by takedown success, cage control, and damage optics, those thresholds feel too rich for the favorite.

Grzebyk is at his best when he can dictate at range: clean boxing combinations, long kicks to manage space, and strong calf kicks that add up. He does good work when opponents enter on straight lines, punishing with check hooks and counters. Against comparable athletes who are willing to strike in the open, he can look a level above thanks to timing and shot selection. However, extended clinch exchanges and layered wrestling sequences can blunt his rhythm. When corralled onto the fence, his balance and first-layer defense are solid, but his ability to consistently reset under relentless re-shots is less certain.

Tulshaev profiles as the pressure side: forward drive, inside trips, singles to doubles, and mat returns that drain the clock. He does not need to be the cleaner boxer if he can force pocket collisions, attach to the hips, and turn minutes into top control and ground strikes. On the feet, his tools are functional—tight overhands to close distance, a serviceable jab into level changes—but the real equity is in chain wrestling and wearing pace. Judges increasingly reward damage over control, but heavy ground-and-pound and posture breaks can satisfy both criteria.

Tactically, the first three minutes are pivotal. If Grzebyk is allowed to set up kicks and sting the lead leg, the entries for Tulshaev get riskier. Conversely, an early takedown or extended fence ride from Tulshaev changes the texture of the fight, taxing Grzebyk’s base and forcing more reactive defense. Even when takedowns are stuffed, repeated attempts draw counters out of the striking rhythm and can flip optics in close rounds.

From a numbers standpoint, the question is whether Grzebyk truly wins north of 61.5% at this stylistic mix. My read is closer to 50–52% for Tulshaev in this configuration—enough clinch wins, enough mat time, and enough attritional damage from top to shade minutes and bank rounds. That makes the underdog price of 2.20 a buy. At a 51% true probability, a $1 stake has an expected value of about +0.12 (0.51×1.20 − 0.49×1.00), which is a meaningful edge in MMA where variance is high.

Risk notes: Grzebyk’s finishing upside in space is real; if he carves up the lead leg or times an entry with a knee, the underdog ticket can get sweaty. But Tulshaev’s pressure, clinch savvy, and ability to stack half-guard and strike offer multiple, repeatable paths in three rounds.

The bet: take Muslim Tulshaev moneyline at 2.20. It is the side with the better price-to-path fit, and it aligns with how these styles typically cash underdog outcomes—control the real estate, bank control time with damage, and make the favorite fight off the back foot for long stretches.