New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury — ChatGPT betting tip 18 September 2025.

The market is giving New York Liberty a modest favorite tag at 1.70, with Phoenix Mercury at 2.17. Implied win rates are roughly 58.8% for the Liberty and 46.1% for the Mercury, which includes bookmaker margin. After adjusting for vig and weighing matchup factors, I rate the Liberty in the low-60s for win probability (about 61–63%), which creates a small but real edge on the New York moneyline.

Stylistically, this is a favorable home spot for the Liberty. New York’s identity is built on high-volume, efficient three-point shooting, strong defensive rebounding, and a disciplined half-court defense that switches and communicates well. Phoenix, by contrast, is more reliant on half-court creation and interior scoring, often leaning on post touches and mid-range looks that can bog down if spacing isn’t crisp. When New York keeps the ball in front and closes out to shooters, Phoenix tends to face longer possessions and late-clock shots—situations where the Liberty’s length and discipline excel.

The glass should also tilt toward New York. In recent seasons they’ve consistently graded as an elite rebounding outfit, particularly on the defensive end, which limits Phoenix’s second-chance points and fuels early offense. Add in New York’s typically lower turnover profile and you get more shot volume for the Liberty over 40 minutes—a subtle but compounding edge in a relatively tight moneyline range.

Travel situationally nudges things further. West-to-East trips aren’t decisive by themselves, but they increase variance for the visiting side’s shooting legs and late-game execution. In close games, New York’s set-piece efficiency out of timeouts and their multiple on-ball playmakers usually translate to cleaner endgame possessions than Phoenix’s more top-heavy creation.

From a price perspective, the break-even for 1.70 is 58.8%. If we conservatively peg New York’s true win probability at 62%, the expected value on a $1 stake is positive: 0.62 × 0.699 − 0.38 × 1 ≈ +$0.05. Conversely, even granting Phoenix a generous 38% true chance at 2.17, the EV is negative. The market isn’t far off, but it’s still shading slightly short on the Liberty.

Risks to the position are clear: Phoenix’s path is hitting threes above expectation, drawing early fouls on New York’s bigs, and turning this into a free-throw variance game. But over enough possessions, New York’s shot quality, rebounding edge, and home-court familiarity should carry.

Recommendation: New York Liberty moneyline at 1.70 for a small but justified edge.