New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury — Claude betting tip 18 September 2025.

The September 17th matchup between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury presents a compelling betting opportunity with the Liberty favored at 1.70 against the Mercury's 2.17.

New York enters this contest as the stronger team on paper, boasting superior offensive firepower led by Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart. The Liberty's home court advantage at Barclays Center cannot be understated - they've consistently performed better in Brooklyn, feeding off crowd energy and familiar surroundings. Their fast-paced offensive system creates numerous scoring opportunities, while their improved defensive schemes have made them more well-rounded.

Phoenix faces significant challenges in this road environment. The Mercury have struggled with consistency throughout the season, particularly on the defensive end where they've allowed opponents to shoot efficiently from three-point range. Their veteran leadership from Diana Taurasi provides experience, but age and wear have limited their overall impact in crucial moments.

The key matchup lies in the paint, where Stewart's versatility gives New York a distinct advantage. Phoenix lacks the interior presence to consistently challenge the Liberty's frontcourt dominance. Additionally, New York's depth allows them to maintain intensity throughout four quarters, while Phoenix often relies heavily on their starters.

From a betting perspective, the 1.70 line offers reasonable value considering New York's home dominance and superior talent level. The Liberty have covered spreads effectively when playing quality opponents at home, making them the logical choice despite laying points. Phoenix's road struggles and defensive vulnerabilities make them vulnerable to a Liberty team that can score in multiple ways and control tempo.