Rogerio Bontorin vs Vitaliy Yakimenko — ChatGPT betting tip 20 September 2025.

Pricing tells a clear story here: Rogerio Bontorin sits as the rightful favorite at 1.43, while Vitaliy Yakimenko is the underdog at 2.63. That spread reflects a stylistic clash tilted toward the better grappler with the deeper résumé against higher-caliber opposition. The question is whether there’s still a sliver of value left on the favorite—and I believe there is.

Bontorin’s calling card is elite grappling for this weight class: strong level changes, chain-wrestling when the first shot stalls, and heavy, sticky top control once he secures hips. He’s particularly dangerous when he locks the body triangle and hunts the back, and he’s comfortable turning a scramble into immediate positional advances. On the feet, he’s competent enough to set up entries with feints and low kicks, but the plan A should be to force clinch exchanges and make this a cage-wrestling match where his experience shines.

Yakimenko looks like the archetypal live underdog: explosive hands, fast-twitch counters, and real power in the first seven minutes. He throws with intent, chops the lead leg, and can flip momentum if you walk in straight lines. However, his takedown defense isn’t bulletproof against layered attempts, and off his back he can be too focused on big bridges instead of building frames and getting to a hip. If he’s stuck against the fence pummeling for underhooks, that’s Bontorin’s world—slow the tempo, mat returns, and score.

Tactically, this hinges on first-contact sequences. If Bontorin initiates early grappling and cycles through singles to doubles to trips, he’ll bank control time and damage with short ground strikes. Judges increasingly favor damage over hold time, so activity matters—but Bontorin is typically proactive with passes, wrist rides, and strikes from half guard. Yakimenko’s best path is a clean counter as Bontorin enters or a wild exchange where the favorite’s guard drops mid-shot.

Cardio and durability are the risk nodes. Bontorin has shown moments of late fade in high-pace affairs, and he can be clipped if the fight gets too chaotic. That said, over three rounds, his style usually frontloads win equity—win minutes early, deflate the power threat, and manage risk down the stretch. If Yakimenko doesn’t land something decisive in R1/R2, the grappling snowball tends to roll downhill.

From a price perspective, 1.43 implies roughly 70% win probability. Accounting for the grappling edge, strength-of-schedule, and the more consistent round-winning path, I rate Bontorin closer to 74–76%. Conversely, 2.63 implies around 38% for Yakimenko—too rich for a striker who likely fights off his back or the fence for long stretches. The edge isn’t massive, but it’s real.

The bet: $1 on Rogerio Bontorin moneyline at 1.43. Expect a grindy decision or a back-take sequence leading to a late choke if Yakimenko’s scrambles get sloppy. If the number drifts worse than -260 pre-fight, the value thins; as it stands, the favorite is the correct side with a modest but positive expectation.